That temperatures are increasing is not in doubt. Most estimates pin it to be at approximately 1 degree as a global average.
All the best prediction models we have, the sort of models and algorithms that help us predict the weather on a day to day basis, help us build bridges and planes, and predict economic outcomes - basically all the things that make human civilization advanced and comfortable - say we wouldn’t be seeing the sudden and consistent increase in temperature if it wasn’t for human activities. A vast majority of the world’s scientists (including over 60 nobel laureates) - a section of our society famously unlikely to be easily convinced or to be misleading - believe this to be true. That’s more than enough for me, but if you still need more go here for a rebuttal of almost every excuse climate change deniers use.
If you agree so far, it’s not too much of a stretch to continue looking towards the right of this graph and see that most predictions have us hitting 1.5 degrees C in temperature increase between 2030-35. That is just 10-15 years away.
The same kind of models that confirm humans are behind the increase in the temperatures, tell us that 1.5-2 degrees global temperature increase, will wreck havoc on an annual basis for All of us.
The IPCC projects that going from 1.5 degrees of global warming to 2 degrees could mean:
And that, dear readers, is basically the tip of the iceberg. Not to be alarmist, but you realise that increasing temperatures means declining food production for instance in multiple ways - directly from the loss of optimal climates to grow certain crops, indirectly from more storms affecting agricultural lands, and the lack of access to freshwater if sea levels rise, to name just a few. All of the above major themes could piggy back on one another to cause all sorts of levels of havoc in various parts of the world. To be clear, there will be some gains, such as the increase of arable land across the far north, but the global climate change means a radical shift in the way we do things, and in most cases, not for the better if things continue as they have done.
‘Tipping point’ events are what climate scientists call moments (and bear in mind the moment might take years to come to pass) when things are so far from the current state that they will take aeons to return to the current state let alone the pre-industrial state.
The most visceral of these is arguably the savannahisation of the Amazon. The Amazon, often termed ‘the lungs of the planet’ took thousands of years to reach the state they are in. But cut enough trees down (as is currently happening at an alarming rate) and the whole ecosystem will tip in such a way that the natural regeneration of the forest will be next to impossible. One saving grace here is that a few different organisations are taking pictures of every part of the planet every single day. This means the efficacy of the various prevailing attempts to protect the forest can be monitored.
Go a little further along the x-axis and the average of all models predicts 2+ degrees temperature increase across most models by 2070. To put this timeline into context, if you’re 30 now, by 2070 you’d be around 80 and perhaps unable to adapt to these changes. But more importantly, the child you recently had or are going to have in the next 5-10 years, or any nieces, nephews or cousins around you that were born recently, will be only halfway through their lives. Is it fair for us to potentially ruin half or more of their lives because we couldn’t make the necessary changes?
Because at temperatures of more than 2 degrees over the current global average other tipping points like the permanent melting of various glaciers is a matter of when, not if. Another alarm bell comes from the melting of the artic permaforst. Not just because the destruction of this ecosystem will inevitably have consequences around the world, but because it currently contains a lot off methane which is of course a highly potent greenhouse gas.
Another way to think about this that might be easier to grasp is that hurricanes and flooding events that would have been once-in-a-thousand or once-in-a-hundred -thousand year events are now happening just a few years apart! So what should have happened only once since America was “discovered” has happened 3- 4 times in the last 5 years alone!
Aside from permanently impacting natural ecosystems, spare a thought for the animals that we are supposed to share the planet with. Almost every species will be directly or indirectly impacted by the rising temperatures. Is it really fair for us to use our position at the top of the food chain to not only dominate, but decimate their existence to the point of extinction?
The truth here is that people have been predicting and warning about the impact of human activities since the 50s and 60s. There are a number of research papers, ironically conducted by oil and gas companies’ scientists that stated that the levels of carbon emissions in the 70s and 80s were unsustainable. In 1988 NASA scientist James Hansen had presented to the US congress the predictions from his and other scientists’ work and in 1992 Al Gore’s famous ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ documentary and book made waves around the world.
But the shocking thing is since those days, we have emitted more carbon emissions than in the entire period of human history before it! Yes, read that again. Here’s World Bank data broken up by country to show the increase since the 80s.
Corporations and organisations hell bent on short term profit. These are led by people who cast aspersions on climate change only to keep profiting. It has worked for them, they were able to give their families a good life so far, but will it last much longer? Is it okay to get a £250k bonus when it means you’ve significantly increased the chance of massive storms, tornadoes and helped bring the end of the only planet we have as a home into focus?
When in 1995, Dept of Energy scientist Ben Santer went on record saying that for all the models they had tested, human intervention was the only way to explain the temperature rise we were seeing and this is not sustainable, his name and details were leaked, and neo-Nazi groups (amongst others) sent him death threats and ruined his and families peace.
But ultimately it’s the upper and classes, often urban dwellers, who have consumed what those companies have dished out to us.
We have been driven into a pattern of insatiable consumption, a desire to buy and experience everything instantly without thought for the repercussions. Tell me if this sounds familiar at all: washing machine not working too well, replace it; food been out too long, throw it away; fancy a bit of a break - book a trip to somewhere exotic. While all of these are justifiable on their own, for a large proportion of the planet to be doing all these sorts of things and frequently leads down a path that is certain to cause immense pain and suffering as described above.
So it’s time to reign it in. To sacrifce now so we ourselves as well as the countless billions who follow us on this planet can have a home planet that is at least somewhat similar to the way we’ve enjoyed it. After all, the fossil fuels we’ve used to power our lives of abundance in the West, took millions of years to create. We couldn’t have just tapped into it willy-nilly and not had to deal with the consequences right?
But in the process of becoming conscious consumers, we can unlock the sort of change I’m sure we all would like to see - a world where there is social justice, equality and hope and happiness for all.
As I see it, the Green New Deal, a sweeping, all-encompassing system of running economies (particularly in the western world) that does not harm the planet and is more equitable for every person on the planet is our best hope in the long run. But that’s not going to happen right away, so let’s all get on board and be the change we want to see in the world.
.svg){kind=logo}
